Weekend Brief: Dow -652, Nasdaq -0.21% - Friday Was Rotation, Not a Rout

A strange Friday on Wall Street: the Dow fell 652 points (-1.23%) to 52,215.16 while the Nasdaq slipped just 0.21% to 25,955.34. That is not a rout — it looks like rotation. Gold lost its $4,000 floor, the A50 night session closed soft, and a 106-billion-yuan unlock wave is waiting for Monday. Here is the full weekend picture for markets reopening October 26, in numbers pulled live from the wires.

1. The Friday shock: three indexes, three directions

Wall Street closed with an unusual split:

• Dow 52,215.16 (-1.23%, -652.82 points)
• S&P 500 7,623.68 (-0.52%)
• Nasdaq 25,955.34 (-0.21%, just -53.52 points)

By Friday's late session the futures told the same story from the other side: Dow futures -1.13% and S&P futures -0.36%, but Nasdaq 100 futures finished +0.16%. Money did not leave tech — it left the rest.

The bigger single move was in metals: spot gold slid 0.71% to $3,996.10, breaking below the $4,000 psychological line, down 4.07% for the week. COMEX gold settled at $4,010 (-4.09% w/w) while New York silver futures dropped more than 6% for the week. The 10-year Treasury yield bounced 4.15bp on Friday to 4.9945%.

In China's jewelry market the slide is already visible: mainstream brands quoted around 1,200 yuan per gram on Saturday — roughly 100 yuan below a month ago.

2. The cushion: dip-buyers never stopped

While indexes wobbled, mainland funds kept buying structure. On October 22 alone, broad-base ETFs saw a net inflow of 51.66 billion yuan. Over the 20 sessions from September 17 to October 22, equity ETFs absorbed 249.66 billion yuan net — and 94.59% of that went into broad-base products. That is dip-buying at index level, not stock-picking.

Sell-side tone is softening too: Huafu Securities' chief macro analyst Chen Xing argues A-share core-asset valuations have largely digested cautious expectations.

The overnight signal was mild: FTSE China A50 futures night session closed -0.37% at 12,991. A soft-but-not-alarming open looks likely for Monday — expect a tentative start rather than a gap panic.

3. Monday watch list: the 106-billion unlock wave

The heaviest scheduled item next week is supply: 44 A-share companies face share unlocks worth a combined 106.01 billion yuan at latest close prices. The single largest is Xi'an Yici Materials-U with 2.837 billion shares — about 60.28 billion yuan of it. Suochen Technology follows with roughly 7.3 billion yuan.

Also landing this week: China's southern regional power market formally began operating Saturday — billed as the world's largest "electricity supermarket", covering five provinces with 290,000+ registered market entities trading on one market.

On the battery chain, September output of power and other batteries hit 237 GWh, +57% YoY (9M: 1,833 GWh, +63%). EVE Energy said its Q4 production schedule is expected to grow QoQ and Q4 capacity is already fully booked.

4. Weekend wildcards: the Gulf, the cloud, and a ceasefire

Geopolitics stays the biggest unhedgeable variable:

• The US ambassador to Turkey said a strike on Iran was possible "this weekend" — Trump then said he was not aware of any such plan. Both remarks are reportedly at odds and unconfirmed.
• A tanker was hit near the Strait of Hormuz; Iran's military vowed to block US Navy entry to the Persian Gulf.
• Barclays sees diesel inventories depleted and short-term oil risk firmly skewed to the upside.

One partial de-escalation: Russia and Ukraine both confirmed a local ceasefire in the Kherson region from October 27, with a possible trilateral meeting within two weeks, reportedly in Abu Dhabi or Switzerland.

Tech overhang reads bullish-capex: Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said AWS capacity is essentially sold out through end-2027, with major orders extending into 2028, on AI infrastructure demand. The UK pledged £100M for AI biosecurity labs with OpenAI, Anthropic and Google DeepMind.

Follow Yijinmoming Finance for the daily China-market emotion index and cross-market briefs. All numbers pulled live from financial wires (Wallstreetcn, Sina quotes) Oct 24-25, 2026 Beijing time, cross-checked against prior-session closes. Forward-looking statements are expectations, not facts; rumor-grade items marked reportedly. Not investment advice.

Full brief: Weekend Brief on Telegra