Hosting Types for Developers: Which One Fits Which Project?

Every few weeks, someone asks me where to deploy a client's site, and the honest answer is always "it depends." So instead of a hot take, here is the mental model I use.

The one variable that separates the plans
All five common hosting types differ along a single axis: how much of the machine is yours, and who else is on it.
Type
What you get
Good fit
Watch out for
Shared
A slice of one server, shared with many sites
Personal blogs, small brochure sites
Noisy neighbors during traffic spikes
VPS

A virtual server with guaranteed resources
Growing sites, custom configs
You manage more yourself
Cloud
Several linked servers, scales with demand
Uneven or seasonal traffic
Costs can be harder to predict
Dedicated
A full physical server
Large or high-security projects
Highest price, needs real management
Managed WordPress
Hosting tuned and maintained for WP
Teams who want less upkeep
Often limits plugins, costs more than shared
How I'd pick, by project
• Portfolio or personal blog: shared. Don't overthink it.
• Small business site with a contact form: shared or managed, and pay attention to support quality.
• Growing WordPress site: managed WordPress, or a VPS if you're comfortable owning the server.
• Online store: VPS or cloud, and confirm how backups and security are handled.
• Sudden traffic spikes: cloud.
• Large or sensitive project: dedicated, ideally with someone managing it.

Things the pricing page won't volunteer
• Introductory prices often jump at renewal. Read the renewal line.
• "Unlimited" storage or bandwidth usually has a fair-use clause.
• A host's backups are not a substitute for your own. Keep a separate copy.
• Check the control panel before you commit. If you have never seen cPanel, it is worth a look.

A mistake that comes up constantly
Not every "server" product is a web host. A Minecraft server, for example, is a game server. A normal website plan is built to serve pages, not to run a live multiplayer game, so look for a provider that explicitly supports it.

Don't over-provision on day one
Most providers let you upgrade later. Start with what the project needs, measure, and move up when the data tells you to.
I put the whole thing together in one place, with a checklist and FAQ, here: Website Hosting Explained: 5 Types and How to Choose.
Which plan type do you default to, and why? I'm curious where people disagree.