Forecasting new power outages per county, hourly, 2 h ahead: 2.4× the PR-AUC of NWS warnings + SPC outlook on a held-out year [P]

Hi all! I built an hourly power outage forecast for 216 counties (MO + IL): P(≥5% of a county's customers newly out in the 6 h starting 2 h from now). Model: XGBoost on HRRR storm-related data (gusts, shear, CAPE, icing,